Palm oil supply and demand pattern quietly bottom sign gradually after five years of bear market, even the price of palm oil has been the focus moves to the 2008 financial crisis lows. However, it is worth noting that the global oil supply and demand pattern is quietly changing, strong dollars into the cycle fluctuation and the El Nino phenomenon gradually become dominant factors continuously, will support the price of palm oil market bottom expansion. Global palm oil supply and demand pattern quietly changing the latest U.S. Department of agriculture data show that 20152016 annual global palm oil ending stocks 6 million 990 thousand tons, representing a decrease of 16% compared to the same period last year, stock consumption ratio is 6.39%. Global palm oil inventory and inventory consumption fell sharply in 2014, sharply lower than forecast data in the first few months of decline, from the early rising trend is downward trend, indicating the global palm oil supply and demand to ease the tight loose pattern, is to change the direction of. Therefore, from long period, the price of palm oil at the bottom or show, palm oil is beginning to market bottom. Display data from the main producing countries, the year 20152016, Indonesia palm oil ending stocks of 1 million 510 thousand tons, a decrease of 7% compared to the same period last year, stock consumption ratio is 4.5%; Malaysia palm oil ending stocks 2 million 110 thousand tons, representing a decrease of 20% compared to the same period last year, stock consumption ratio is 9.8%. At the end of the year, inventory and warehouse demand ratio of major producing countries dropped sharply compared with the previous year, which verified the change of global palm oil supply and demand pattern. Dollars into the strong periodic K from the trend, the dollar index has bottomed out, the rise in the oscillation period of the relay, 100 point mark integer repression, forming trend of oscillation. After the global financial crisis, the U.S. dollar has been in a weak decline period, while in the middle of 2014, the dollar index rose rapidly, 100 points were detected, forming a rising trend. In the long run, the US dollar index has entered a strong cycle, and the probability of continuing strong in the late period is larger. Relative to the dollar, non US currencies are basically in the 2016 devaluation, this trend rate probably will continue, the exchange rate effect or positive domestic palm oil prices appear to contribute to the compensatory growth market. El Nino continues the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released the latest El Nino index (ONI) was 2, 8 consecutive months in more than 0.5, now is the peak period of El Nino, is developing to the depth direction, you can imagine, the future of Southeast Asia, especially Indonesia and Malaysia, high temperature and dry weather continues, so a great probability of Indonesia and Malaysia palm oil production to the future. If so, it will support palm oil prices remain strong. To sum up, the global palm oil supply and demand pattern quietly turned loose; the U.S. economic recovery, the dollar into the strong fluctuation; El Nino this year will continue for a long time, both support the formation of prices. Therefore, the long cycle, palm oil at the bottom or show, palm oil is beginning to market bottom. (author: Southwest futures) Sina statement: this news is reprinted from Sina cooperation media, Sina published this article from the transmission theory

棕榈油供需格局悄然转变 底部迹象逐渐显现   历经五年的熊市行情,连棕榈油价格重心已经下移至2008年金融危机时的低点。然而,值得注意的是,全球棕榈油供需格局正在悄然转变,美元进入强周期波动以及厄尔尼诺现象渐趋成为持续的主导因素,将支撑棕榈油价格展开筑底行情。   全球棕榈油供需格局悄然转变   美国农业部最新数据显示,2015 2016年度全球棕榈油期末库存为699万吨,较上年度同比减少16%,库存消费比为6.39%。全球棕榈油期末库存和库存消费比较2014年大幅回落,也较前几个月的预测数据大幅下调,从前期的攀升之势转为下跌之势,说明全球棕榈油的供需宽松格局缓解,正在向趋紧方向转变。因此,从长周期来看,棕榈油价格底部或已显现,棕榈油正在开始筑底行情。   从主产国来看,数据显示,2015 2016年度印度尼西亚棕榈油期末库存为151万吨,较上年度同比减少7%,库存消费比为4.5%;马来西亚棕榈油期末库存为211万吨,较上年度同比减少20%,库存消费比为9.8%。主产国年末库存和库需比也较上年度大幅回落,从侧面验证了全球棕榈油供需格局的悄然转变。   美元进入强周期   从K线走势来看,美元指数已经见底,目前处于上涨中继的振荡期,受100点整数关口压制,形成振荡走势。全球金融危机后,美元一直处于弱势下跌周期,而2014年中期美元指数快速上涨,上探到100点,形成上涨之势。长期来看,美元指数已经进入强周期,后期继续走强的概率较大。相对美元,非美货币基本都在贬值,2016年这种趋势大概率仍将延续,汇率影响或利好国内棕榈油价格,有助于补涨行情的出现。   厄尔尼诺现象仍在持续   美国国家海洋和气象管理局(NOAA)最新公布的厄尔尼诺指数(ONI)为2,连续8个月位于0.5以上,说明现在是厄尔尼诺现象的鼎盛期,正在向纵深方向发展,可以想象,未来的东南亚,特别是印度尼西亚和马来西亚,高温和干燥气候持续,所以未来印度尼西亚和马来西亚棕榈油继续减产的概率很大。若如此,必将支撑棕榈油价格维持强势。   综上所述,全球棕榈油供需宽松格局悄然转向;美国经济回升下,美元进入强周期波动;厄尔尼诺现象本年度仍将持续较长时间,均对价格形成支撑。因此,长周期来看,棕榈油底部或已显现,棕榈油正在开始筑底行情。 (作者单位:西南期货) 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: